2024 US elections: Deep divides and competing visions for America

2024 US elections: Deep divides and competing visions for America

In 2024, 4 billion people across 74 countries are casting their votes. Among these, the US Presidential, Senate, and Congress elections on November 5 are set to be the most market-moving.

Introduction by Nicolas Sopel

Nicolas Sopel

Nicolas Sopel

Nicolas Sopel is Head of Macro Research & Chief Strategist Luxembourg, a key role in the Quintet organisation. He has recently returned to Europe after more than ten years in Singapore. He will help shape our view of the global economy, interest rates, currencies and emerging markets.

Nicolas is also helping to ensure that we communicate our views clearly and convincingly to all our stakeholders. This includes clients, with a particular focus on French speakers, Quintet staff and the media.
Nicolas previously worked at Fitch Solutions, where he was a senior member of the global strategy team responsible for country risk and sector research.

Prior to that, he worked for companies such as RHB Bank, one of Malaysia's largest banking groups, and BBSP, a technical research analysis company. He began his career at Société Générale, where he was a hedge fund manager.

Born and raised in Paris, Nicolas holds a master's degree in financial engineering from ESILV Paris and a bachelor's degree in physics from the University of Paris VII Denis Diderot.

Email: nicolas.sopel@quintet.lu

The US elections are just around the corner, and, at this juncture, it’s still nearly impossible to predict who’s going to be the 47th President of the United States of America, and which party will dominate the US Congress, which is so important for policymaking. No candidate has been able to take a strong lead in opinion polls, including in the decisive swing states. Polls are well within the margin of errors, so in a way, everything is possible, and everything is so uncertain. From domestic to foreign policies, the two candidates have opposing views, which could have different implications for the economy and for markets.

But markets don’t like uncertainty. With the presidential race so tight, and the outcome very much unpredictable, we expect some volatility as results start to come in. Rather than advocating knee jerk reactions to volatile incoming news, we seek to maintain composure. In this environment, we maintain a healthy dose of diversification.

We are pleased to share the exclusive thoughts of a series of leading experts on the potential impact of the election on markets, geopolitical landscape and economic policy. The thought leaders featured are:

Daniele Antonucci

Co-Head of Investment & Chief Investment Officer at Quintet

The key question when you look at the US election is what happens to the fiscal bit. You don’t hear much about it in the political debates.


Uncertainty looms over the 47th US presidential elections, with rising fiscal deficits, debt and unknown foreign policies adding to the complexity. Regardless of the elections’ outcomes, discover how we apprehend this event by mitigating risks and leveraging growth opportunities.

Catherine Kress

Head of Geopolitical Research & Strategy at BlackRock

Neither party has prioritised tackling the budget deficit. We see persistent deficits as reinforcing our views around sticky inflation and higher for longer interest rate.


What are the main differences between the two candidates on key policies, fiscal, regulatory and trade? These divergences could have a different impact on markets. Discover in this video what’s our partner BlackRock’s take on the US elections.

Libby Cantrill

Head of US Public Policy at PIMCO

The party that controls the White House doesn’t necessarily control either the House of
Representatives or the Senate.


US voters aren’t just deciding on their next President, but also what the composition of the US Congress will look like. Discover how this composition could impact the policy plans each candidate, particularly around one of the key policy points: tax.

Former Ambassador John B. Emerson

Vice Chairman, Capital Group International

Every President in the United States thinks they’re putting America first, they just have different approaches as how to do it.


The next US President could have a significant effect on America’s engagement with our nations. Discover how a Harris or Trump administration could influence US alliances across the globe.

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